MOMP: Newton’s Theory of Discardability – Part Two. - by Chris Newton

[Streetz]

This thread is reserved for the dicussion of the following article:

http://www.magicdeckvortex.com/mdvarticle0403.htm

Please read it, enjoy it and discuss it here.

What did you like about the article? Was it inspiring, informational, ingenius? Was it inappropriate? Was there anything you really liked or didn't like about it?

Let the author know here!

Thanks!

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[Zaknifa]

Another good article, liked all the points on how to be a tournament player and the look at the ponza archetype.

[12q34e]

good writing. Although you project a cut throat attitude you also project a respect for the game and the players in it. This is an unusualy mix and shows what a true competitive spirit is.

Now onto the discard deck. Ponza and discard both create very strong virtual card advantage (blanking opponets cards). This is acheived by the hight concentration of instant discards and creature kill. This advantage can very quickly turn against the discard deck in a non-aggro match. If an opponet is not playing creatures (teps, heartbeat) then your creature kill is blanked. The same is mostly true of the control matchup. Your discard also becomes less relevant against any archtype with control in its' name. They like to sit back and wait as well and are probobly playing more lands then you. While this may seem like a disadvantage to them it gives them two advantages. One, they will rebuild faster then you in the case of land destruction. Two, they can discard lands to discards spells and plan on drawing the ones they need later. The other problem with the control deck is that they play card drawing. This is extremly relevent against discard. Ancestral visions turn one will win this match up for the control player.

traditionaly these problems with the control game have been adressed by playing cards that force multiple discards (cabal therapy, persecute, mindslicer). This is helpful in keep parity in card advantage but may not advance the game to a winning posistion. That is my final problem with the discard deck, the win conditions are not strong enough.

If a player has any instant speed artifact destruction then they can kill racks (unless you draw racks and disamal failures in perfect proportation and if you save you dismal failures for artifact destruction).

If a player has a recurable creature (eternal dragon, hakkon, etc) or one that get past discard (dodecapod, quagnoth, etc) then the discard player can be in trouble. Worse yet, what if the control player forces through a teferi?

Finaly, I would like to look at the best decks in standard right now (i realize this is more of a theory article i just think it is a bad theory to use in standard right now). Starcitygames' most recent 5000 dollar top eights have:
Faries
red deck wins
merfolk
dragon storm
elfs
green aggro
land destruction

faries won both days that weekend. This deck type is more or less a bye against faeries. Turn two bitter blossom is unanswerable, spell stutter sprite keeps there card safe, mutavault is hard to deal with, ancestral vision is a four of, scion of oona protects creatures, and many of their creatures can be played at instant speed.

red deck wins did very well as well. RDW also plays many spells at instant speed (19 burn spells costing 3 mana or less). it has 7 man lands to deal with. Finaly, its' mana curve tops out at four, this means that it should be able to work well with limited resources.

Right now in standard discard has a really tough time with the two most winning decks. That makes it a really dangerous choice to play at any high level event. Now if your FNM or kitchen table or where ever you play (your metagame) if full of elfs, warriors, kithkin, or maybe even dragon storm then run with this theory. You can wreck alot of decks and catch alot of players unprepared with all of this instant discard.

Sorry about having such a large rebuttal here (tee hee large but). I really did enjoy reading these articles. You really opened my eyes to just how much instant speed discard is floating around standard these days. I also appoligize if this post has errors in it, I am off to work and cannot edit it right now. Finaly, please feel free to tell me that i am full of crap... exspecialy the author.

[Tynion]

Your join date reads Mar 2008, which means you may have missed the beginning of the year when we writers went on Strike, and refused to write articles. Our main concern was that no one was responding to our articles, and therefore we had no way of knowing what you guys thought or how we were doing.

Having said that, in no way, shape or form am I going to say you are full of crap, as I respect the fact that you have responded, and I encourage that.

I will however now work on a deck to trump both of those deck and prove to you that all I have to do is be creative and want the victory more, and I can beat your top decks. I will show up with a deck in the near future.

[12q34e]

i look forward to seeing those decks. Alow me to throw up some decklist for reference.

Deck
4 Underground River 4 River of Tears 4 Snow-Covered Island 1 Pendelhaven 4 Secluded Glen 4 Mutavault 4 Faerie Conclave 2 Pestermite 4 Rune Snag 3 Sower of Temptation 3 Cryptic Command 4 Spellstutter Sprite 4 Scion of Oona 4 Mistbind Clique 4 Bitterblossom 4 Ancestral Vision 3 Terror	Sideboard 2 Flashfreeze 2 Slaughter Pact 4 Thoughtseize 3 Damnation 4 Bottle Gnomes

Deck
16 Mountain 3 Ghitu Encampment 4 Mutavault 4 Magus of the Moon 4 Lash Out 4 Incinerate 2 Countryside Crusher 3 Shard Volley 4 Keldon Marauders 4 Tattermunge Maniac 4 Flame Javelin 4 Mogg Fanatic 4 Rift Bolt	Sideboard 3 Spitebellows 4 Fulminator Mage 3 Everlasting Torment 2 Vexing Shusher 3 Sulfurous Blast

I think that that rdw deck can be beat pretty eaisly but the faerie deck is a whole different matter. I am excited to see what the discard can do against it. I do belive faeries can be beat i just don't think that the discard deck can do it.

and you are right about the strike, i started trolling just prior but didn't really read much into it. Are you getting better comments now?

[Azrael Subucni]

A great follow up aticle. The first had been insightful, but it had left me wondering how the deck would go about winning. This one was pretty thorough about that. I never thought about it before, but the bus driver metaphor is a pretty accurate one. I can think of times I've been on both ends of it, and the result was almost always the same. Without a very lucky topdeck involved, the bus driver won.

I have a BR deck loosely based around land denial that I might consider modifying into a Ponza, after hearing about the archtype.... it's just a matter of getting the cards for it. I don't know if I can get any wildfires.

I'll admitt, I only skimmed the section on mental gaming. I just play casually with friends, so it wasn't that relevent for me. But I enjoyed the rest. A good read, overall.

[Oblivion]

am here to win the game, not be your friend. It is not my fault that you are intimidated by me and every time you move, you almost fall out of the chair with your nervous tremors.

Amen.

My policy to the core. Loved the part about mental warfare. Was surprised to find I was actually practising some of those things, but also pleased to learn about many other things I could do to psyche my opponent.

Good read (there is only so much praise I can give before running out of words, such is the quality).

[Tynion]

Thank you guys

I begun working on my deck last night, but as is the story of my life, I can't stay focused on one damn thing for long. Once I read Bitterblossom again, I drifted and when I realized what I was doing, it was too late, I was halfway down the path of a MBC deck lol. I'll try again tonight

[12q34e]

once again good luck, and i know the feeling of reading bitter blossom and just making decks from it.

[hamsandwich]

great read. really pulled together at the end. i'd be interested to see the outcome of this battle. but seriously, what is your win condition in a deck like that? are you going to push small creatures through, or consume spirit?

maybe i should read them again, anyhoo, really loved the intro...

[12q34e]

as soon as the decks are ready i am more than happy to play faeries against you on MWS, i don't play standard much but i have played the deck a little.

[12q34e]

did we get any decklists? of course standard has shifted a bit but i still think farieries will be relevant, exspecialy at FNM

[Tynion]

I have not forgotten I have two build I am working with. I just am having issues with MWS not wanting to connect for testing.

The original version has little issue with Faeries, as the sheer quantity of removal squashed thier threats. I am disturbed by the mana base assault of the blink deck currently more than your two suggested decks. Those decks are piddly if you want my real opinion. Minor annoyances that were not properly prepared for. The Blink deck that I keep seeing is a monster.

[12q34e]

hollywood top 8
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...wood&limit=100

day two metagame percentages
http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x.../day2breakdown

faries is always going to be a contender in this standard metagame. Blink has been forgoten a bit, mainly because it can't beat a turn two bitterblossom, but is always strong. Let me know when you want to do some testing.

[Tynion]

Hook me up with an msn, I have a little bit of time in the morning and afternoons